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ALPHA GALACTICA AeroVironment, Inc.

AVAV

AeroVironment, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (16)
194.50
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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-8.5%
-20.2%
▼
3.7%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
16.0 /100
🏗️ Structural 6.0 /40
Quality Score: 7.0 × 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

S-I3 Stack: S-I3

Sovereign supply chain hardening

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

H-DILUTION Serial Diluter

Shares outstanding increased by 77.0% YoY.

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

🌊 Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
RISK-3 Margin Compression and Negative FCF

Despite triple-digit YoY revenue growth, gross margins are thin at 24.2% and FCF margin is deeply negative at -15.3%, suggesting high customer acquisition costs or operational inefficiencies.

T11 Tailwind: T11

Humanoid robotics and physical AI agents

C4 Cycle: C4

Supply/demand pricing power

RISK-1 Smart Money Divergence

A significant conflict exists between market analysts and company insiders; while 17 analysts maintain a buy consensus with a $311.47 mean target (74.5% upside), insiders have been net sellers of 6,946 shares totaling $2,182,445 over the last 6 months.

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

CAT-1 Fiscal Year Recovery Cycle

Analyst forecasts point to a sharp +40.7% EPS growth rebound in the +1y period, which may act as a catalyst if the company can stabilize its cost structure.

RISK-2 Earnings Execution and Reliability

The company has a poor track record of meeting market expectations, recording 3 earnings misses out of the last 4 quarters, which undermines the reliability of forward-looking analyst estimates.

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

T4 Tailwind: T4

Sovereign resilience & energy security

RISK-4 Growth Deceleration

Revenue declined 13.6% sequentially and current year EPS is forecasted to contract by 12.2%, flagging a sharp reversal from previous growth trends.

⚡ Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

AeroVironment is a defense contractor specializing in robotic systems, including unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), tactical missile systems, and unmanned ground vehicles. The company provides intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to the U.S. Department of Defense and international allied forces.

Market Cap 9.09B
P/E (TTM) —
Rev Growth 1.4%
Gross Margin —
CEO: Mr. Wahid Nawabi
Sector: Industrials • Aerospace & Defense

Investment Thesis

🎯 A projected +40.7% EPS growth rebound in the next fiscal year driven by defense contract stabilization.

Although AeroVironment has reported triple-digit revenue expansion, the investment case is clouded by operational inefficiencies and a sharp sequential deceleration. While top-line revenue grew 143.4% YoY, the 13.6% decline on a quarterly basis suggests that the surge in defense demand may be lumpy or reaching a temporary ceiling. The firm's inability to convert scale into cash flow is reflected in a negative FCF margin of -15.3%, while insiders have signaled caution by selling $2,182,445 in stock over the last six months. Investors must weigh the optimistic 74.5% analyst upside against a history of three earnings misses in the last four quarters, indicating a lack of predictable execution.

Bear 235.00
▼
Bull 450.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-17 Sell 53.1K
2026-03-17 Sell 42.5K
2026-03-11 Sell 88.9K
2026-02-17 Sell 127.5K
2026-02-11 Sell 235.2K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

AeroVironment (AVAV) reported a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 143.4%, driven by strong defense sector demand. However, the company experienced a sequential revenue decline of 13.6%, indicating potential lumpiness in contract timing or a cooling from peak demand levels. Gross margins remain pressured at 24.2%, and the company is currently cash-flow negative with a TTM FCF margin of -15.3%. Management commentary reflects a transition period, evidenced by the 1 beat and 3 misses in the last four earnings cycles.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates

📰 News

2026-04-10 AeroVironment appoints new COO - Virginia Business 2026-04-10 AeroVironment Appoints New COO Amid Leadership Transition - The Globe and Mail 2026-04-10 AeroVironment COO Hire Puts Contract Execution And Valuation In Focus - simplywall.st 2026-04-10 AeroVironment Taps New COO As Investors Weigh Execution And Valuation - Yahoo Finance 2026-04-10 Bear of the Day: AeroVironment (AVAV) - The Globe and Mail 2026-04-10 Cirrus Logic and AeroVironment have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day - TradingView 2026-04-10 Robert Smith Joins AeroVironment as Executive VP, Chief Operating Officer - GovCon Wire 2026-04-10 US Air Force Taps AeroVironment for $25M Health and Performance Tech Push - The Defense Post 2026-04-09 AeroVironment Appoints New COO Amid Leadership Transition - TipRanks 2026-04-09 AeroVironment CEO: This technology could define the next decades of warfare - CNBC 2026-04-09 8-K Regulation FD Disclosure 2026-03-18 8-K Departure/Appointment of Directors or Officers 2026-03-16 8-K Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities

📄 SEC Filings

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